Predictive Model Of type 2 Diabetes Risk In Early Adulthood Using environmental Approach in costal and Urban Areas

Abstract

Introduction: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a growing global health problem, including in Indonesia. In Riau Province, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes is also high, with more than 90,000 cases recorded in 2023. Early detection through a risk factor prediction model is essential to prevent further complications.

Aim: This study aims to analyse a predictive model of risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus in early adulthood in Riau Province using an environmental approach.

Method: This study used a quantitative design with a survey method to explore the correlation and interaction between environmental exposure and risk factors for T2DM in young adults (aged 18–45 years). A total of 791 respondents were randomly selected as the sample. Data analysis was performed using multivariate analysis with Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling and significance testing through bootstrapping with a significance level of 5%.

Results: The results of the analysis indicate that determinants of consumption behaviour have a significant influence on the risk of type 2 diabetes (P=0.000). However, lifestyle factors and individual characteristics do not significantly influence the risk of diabetes in the early adult age group (P>0.05). The prediction model shows the highest R² value for the consumption behaviour variable (0.242), with a Q² value of 0.864, indicating a good model for predicting diabetes risk factors.

Conclusion: The present study demonstrates that the consumption of sweet foods and associated dietary habits is significantly associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. It is evident that environmental factors, including but not limited to air pollution and noise, significantly impact the risk of developing diabetes. Implementing policies that promote healthy eating patterns, effective stress management techniques, and the reduction of exposure to pollution is strongly advised, particularly in urban and coastal regions. Further research is required to confirm these results. Such research should be conducted using a longitudinal approach.